Carnell Tate's Pro Day Snub: Smart Play or Missed Opportunity?
Carnell Tate walked onto the indoor field at Ohio State's Woody Hayes Athletic Center on Wednesday, but he wasn't there to run. Not the 40-yard dash, anyway. The receiver, fresh off a respectable 4.47-second Combine performance in Indianapolis back in March, opted to sit out the marquee event, declaring the 40 "overvalued." It’s a bold move for a guy looking to solidify his draft stock.
The 40-Yard Obsession
Look, everyone loves the 40. It’s a simple, digestible number. Fans talk about it. Scouts scribble it down. Chris Johnson ran a 4.24 back in 2008, and it helped vault him to the 24th overall pick. John Ross broke that in 2017 with a 4.22, and the Bengals took him ninth. When Tate ran his 4.47 at the Combine, it placed him 15th among all receivers there. Not elite speed, but certainly not a red flag. He also posted a 38-inch vertical jump, good for 10th among receivers, and an 11-foot-1 broad jump, which was 5th. Those numbers scream explosiveness, not just straight-line speed.
Thing is, Tate’s college production doesn't scream "track star" either. In 2023, his freshman year, he caught 18 passes for 264 yards and a single touchdown. His longest reception was 43 yards against Western Kentucky. Marvin Harrison Jr., on the other hand, had 67 receptions for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2023. Emeka Egbuka added 51 catches for 620 yards and 4 scores. Tate was the fourth option, at best, in a loaded receiving corps. So, his Combine numbers were actually pretty decent considering his limited on-field opportunities.
Tate's Calculated Risk
Here's the thing: Tate isn't wrong about the 40 being overvalued. How many times have we seen a guy blaze a 4.3 and then struggle to separate in pads? Or a receiver run a 4.5 and consistently toast cornerbacks with route running and football IQ? Cooper Kupp ran a 4.62 at his Combine in 2017. All he did was lead the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947), and receiving touchdowns (16) in 2021, earning Offensive Player of the Year. Tate’s decision suggests confidence in his film and his other athletic testing. He probably knows he wasn’t going to shave off a tenth of a second and crack the 4.3s anyway. Why risk a slower time that could actually hurt his stock?
He did participate in position drills, showcasing his hands and route precision. He looked fluid and natural. That’s what scouts really want to see after the initial buzz of the Combine wears off. They want to see if the speed translates to football movements. And Tate certainly demonstrated that.
The Aftermath and What It Means
Some will undoubtedly call Tate’s move arrogant. Others will see it as strategic. I lean towards strategic. He put up a perfectly good number already. Improving it marginally wouldn't change his profile much. A worse number, however, could have dropped him a round. He's probably looking at a Day 2 or early Day 3 selection. My hot take? This decision won't impact his draft slot one bit. Teams have enough tape, enough other athletic data, and his Combine 40 time.
This isn't about hiding anything. It's about maximizing his presentation. Carnell Tate knows what kind of player he is. He’s a polished route runner with good hands and impressive explosiveness, even if he’s not a burner. He had 13 catches for 200 yards in the final four games of 2023, showing late-season development. He's betting on that.
I predict Tate will be selected by the end of the third round, proving that sometimes, the best play is no play at all.