Pep Guardiola said it this week, and honestly, it made me do a double-take. "Close" to their best? After that performance at the Santiago Bernabéu, where Real Madrid carved them open with almost casual ease, I'm not so sure what Pep's definition of "best" is anymore. City lost that quarter-final first leg 3-3, a scoreline that flattered them given how often Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo strolled into acres of space. Rodrygo's goal in the 14th minute came from a quick counter, exposing a defense that looked utterly bewildered.
Thing is, this isn't the City side that steamrolled Arsenal 4-1 at the Etihad last April, effectively sealing the title. That team played with a swagger, a suffocating press, and a ruthlessness that's gone missing at crucial moments this season. They're still winning, sure. They beat Luton 5-1 last weekend, and Phil Foden bagged a hat-trick against Aston Villa in early April. But even in those wins, you see flashes of something… less. The control isn't as absolute, the mistakes a touch more frequent. Remember the 1-1 draw with Chelsea in February, where Rodri's late equalizer papered over a disjointed performance? That's not the mark of a team "close" to its peak.
**The Ghosts of Trebles Past**
Here's the thing: last season’s treble-winning side was an anomaly, a perfect storm. They won 12 straight league games from February to May, averaging 3.25 goals per game in that stretch. Erling Haaland was a new, terrifying force, shattering the Premier League single-season goal record with 36 strikes. Ilkay Gündogan, bless his heart, found another gear, popping up with critical goals like his brace in the FA Cup final against Manchester United. That kind of relentless, suffocating dominance is incredibly hard to replicate. And frankly, they haven't.
Look, this year, City has already dropped points in seven league games. Last season, they only dropped points in eight *total*. They drew 4-4 with Chelsea in November, a chaotic affair where they gave up a penalty in the 95th minute. They lost 1-0 to Aston Villa in December, a game where Villa absolutely dominated them and could have won by more. These aren't just blips; they're cracks in the fortress. Kevin De Bruyne has been in and out with injuries, missing a huge chunk of the season after limping off against Burnley on opening day. And while Foden's stepping up, the midfield doesn't always have that same telepathic understanding it once did.
And honestly, the Real Madrid game exposed the biggest flaw: the defense, particularly when asked to defend against pace. Rúben Dias and Manuel Akanji looked slow, out of position, and utterly unable to cope with Vinícius and Rodrygo. They gave up six shots on target in the first half alone. That's not a team "close" to its best. That's a team with serious vulnerabilities that better opposition will exploit every single time.
My hot take? This City team isn't "close" to its best. It's past it. They're still an elite side, capable of beating anyone on their day, but the aura of invincibility is gone. They won't win the Champions League this year. Real Madrid will see them off at the Etihad, probably by a single goal, exposing those defensive frailties once more.